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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd