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Only two days prior to the New York mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – going beyond the winner citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in the city, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters favored Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your night?

I had to do that because they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the system every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but came large groups of votes that came in after that and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, it was possible in which yesterday turned out somewhat badly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani added half a million votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, renters and residents struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president previously backed Zohran now. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought it could exceed two million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to get over half. He has 50.4% but remain probably 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not certain, but I believe probable, and I wish he does because afterwards none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That really was unexpected. The independent kept very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these Republicans on Staten Island with a high participation. I believe occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it before Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported the independent. Thus there was some opposition. But overall, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on if Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential there. Similarly in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. So I don’t know if existed major surprises on this one, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be more of that – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that each urban center in America could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.