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Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles produce almost 5x greater global warming pollution than official data show, as per a recent analysis.

Widening Gap In Official and Real-World CO2 Output

Statistics shows that PHEVs release only 19% lower CO₂ than traditional petrol and diesel vehicles, according to analysis carried out by a advocacy group. This differs significantly with lab estimates, which suggested a 75% reduction in pollution.

Researchers studied information from onboard fuel consumption monitors of eight hundred thousand vehicles sold in Europe from 2021 and 2023. The team found that actual CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times higher than lab figures, increased from three and a half times in 2021.

“Real-world CO2 output are increasing, while lab-reported figures are decreasing,” said a lead analyst participating in the report. “That discrepancy is widening and poses a significant problem. As a result, PHEVs emit almost as heavily as petrol cars.”

Primary Reasons Driving the Discrepancy

Analysts linked the majority of the difference to inflated estimates of the “utility factor” – the percentage of miles driven in electric power compared to overall mileage. They found that just a quarter of travel was done in EV mode, while official assumptions suggested 84%.

Additionally, when operating in EV mode, emission amounts were significantly higher than lab estimates. That occurred because electric motors were insufficiently powerful enough to function independently, resulting to combustion motors burning fossil fuels for almost one-third of the travel covered in electric mode.

Policy and Economic Implications

According to estimates, the underestimation of PHEV CO2 output allowed several major automaker companies to escape over €5bn in penalties between 2021 and 2023, by falsely easing adherence with EU average fleet CO₂ standards.

Additionally, drivers of PHEVs could pay about €500 extra per year in operating expenses than is assumed under lab tests.

“The strong statements that automakers often promote about their PHEV vehicles are obviously way off the truth,” commented a automotive analyst. “Consumers are being duped into thinking that by purchasing a PHEV, they are helping the planet and saving money. In reality, PHEVs are only slightly better than standard petrol and diesel cars in terms of fuel use, CO₂ production, and running costs.”

Policy Debate and Industry Pressure

Plug-in hybrid vehicles have recently been brought back into policy debates as automakers have lobbied the European Union to weaken CO₂ targets. A proposed prohibition on sales of new combustion engine vehicles in 2035 has faced intense pressure from the car industry and opposition from member states with large car manufacturing.

Several high-level officials have suggested plug-in hybrids as a potential “compromise” solution to introduce in the regulation.

One external energy policy expert, who was unaffiliated with the research, described the report a “very useful addition” after a long period in which parts of the car sector argued there was too little information to properly evaluate actual emissions.

“The results demonstrate, without question, that the difference in lab and real-world PHEV energy use and CO₂ output is much, much larger than for petrol or conventional vehicles,” the expert said. “Any policy changes regarding PHEVs should be made with utmost care and in the light of that data.”