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Entering the planet's most popular art institution in the middle of the day, taking eight pieces of priceless historical gems and vanishing into Paris traffic on simple scooters may seem like the most audacious of crimes, executed for global fame and ensuing Hollywood film treatments.

Specialists who observe patterns in international art crime, however, see the recent heist at the Louvre as something more prosaic: the latest in a string of smash-and-grab thefts centered more on the material value of valuable gems or metals than the artifacts’ significance, perpetuating a trend that has appeared over the last ten years in Europe, Britain and the US. The venue, they suggest, would have been of secondary concern to the thieves.

“One might wonder why criminals who want to take expensive jewellery are entering a globally renowned museum rather than a Cartier store,” stated Christopher A Marinello. “It's straightforward: it’s because nowadays a high-end boutique is better protected.”

A series of aggressive retail store thefts indicate that many stores have beefed up their security in recent years, with security personnel on their premises and merchandise no longer kept on display overnight. Cultural institutions, meanwhile, look vulnerable, partly because of the inherent reason of being accessible institutions in older structures, and also the financial situation in many developed nations.

“After the pandemic, governments across the world have reduced spending on police and the culture sector,” noted Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it demonstrates how at risk our museums have become. This is a horrible time to be a museum.”

The theft of the objects – featuring necklaces made up of precious stones and 631 diamonds, the tiara of Empress Eugénie containing nearly 2,000 diamonds and a hugely valuable crown once owned by a royal that the robbers dropped by the roadside on their way out – has inevitably drawn comparisons with the 1911 theft of the famous painting from the Louvre, performed by the worker Vincenzo Peruggia.

Better comparisons may be the recent theft of jewellery from a German institution worth over millions, the taking of a multi-million pound gold toilet from Blenheim Palace the that year, the 2017 heist of a valuable item from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a series of robberies of collector items from American institutions.

“There’s a simple pattern here,” said Marinello. “Smash, grab, and melt it down as rapidly as possible.”

If the items were to remain intact, experts say, the criminals would struggle to find a buyer. “There’s no way to sell something as recognizable as the Louvre’s jewels on the licit market”, commented Lynda Albertson of the a relevant organization.

“They are too well-known, particularly given the Ministry of Culture has released images of the pieces. Even a private collector or an auction house would want to see paperwork confirming legal possession before handling such striking pieces.”

In the past, institutions were often reluctant to announce publicly about the disappearance of well-known art pieces and would remain quiet out of embarrassment. These days, as cultural robberies are more widely publicised, the keeping and sale of taken items is risky business for any lawbreaker.

“Taking a Picasso, it has to stay complete or it becomes valueless, and you have to conceive of a plan to keep it in hiding, maybe by moving it among dangerous individuals,” said Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the danger of an accomplice informing authorities to collect a reward.”

For similar reasons, an art detective said it was vanishingly unlikely that the robbery had been ordered. “Commissioned theft is something from films,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It’s all around the world and in all the newspapers. If you acquire these, if you are apprehended, you end up in prison. You cannot show it to your friends, you cannot leave it to your children.”

Modifying stolen works by dismantling or reshaping does lower the value. When it comes to gems, it also comes with significant danger because modern cutting techniques give gems a bigger and lighter surface area, and older-style stones would either draw unwanted attention or barter the price down for a coverup.

Crucially, however, melting down or reshaping removes the proof of the crime. “I suspect that the robbers will try to take the items to locations with gem knowledge like Israel, another nation or even as close as a city, and locate an expert to cut out the gems,” said Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already raised questions about protective steps at the institution, with a leaked state auditor report expected to be released next month criticising “considerable” and “persistent” delays in updating systems and noting that surveillance were missing in multiple areas. But specialists say displaying valuable objects in older structures with a constant flow of guests comes with risks that are impossible to eliminate completely.

“Older structures are much harder to secure,” explained an art crime professor. “Many of them have nice big street-facing windows that allows for criminals to escape, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you can’t fit them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The most solid security systems for buildings should be designed “like a fortress”, noted a security advisor. “There should be several layers to deter intruders.”

Modern buildings are fitted with state-of-the-art surveillance systems or in-built vibration sensors that alert about a broken glass in real time, but historic institutions may be hesitant to alter their appearance. Laser scanners can be hard to fit to stuccoed ceilings. Motion and sound detectors may also have to be disabled during the daytime as hordes of visitors stomp through a museum.

The timing of the robbery, which took place between morning hours in Paris, was typical of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “There’s a good reason why robberies tend to happen at either start or end of day. Frequently when guards change their shifts and prior to the museum is full of visitors who actually act as additional security staff.”

Advances in technology may have introduced new devices that can notify more quickly and effectively, but it has also provided thieves new methods with which to circumvent protections. In the city, the robbers accessed the museum’s upper level with a mobile equipment and breached a glass pane with a electric tool.

Elaine Sciolino said the discussion in the country about the historic building had mostly focused on visitor management in recent years, and not as much on protection.

The museum has an on-site brigade of about 50 permanent emergency personnel, but their purpose is mostly to safeguard the collection from fires and flooding. “There is no rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the security of the Louvre all depends on government support and funding, and at present the nation simply has no money.”