Is the Entertainment Fading? This Drop of Open-Play Goals from Open Play

Football match action
Wolves managed a decrease of 10 goals from open-play situations than this point the previous campaign.

A major talking point of the EPL season so far has been the drop of scoring in open-play scenarios and the way sides are finding goals more from dead-ball situations as an alternative.

When we compare goal sources to the first 11 games the prior season, we see 39 fewer scored in open-play and 26 more from set-plays and penalties, giving us 13 fewer overall.

If we look at the bigger picture, shot attempts sides are producing reveal a staggering 370 fewer in open play than at this stage last time out.

Even with the significant rise in set-play finishes, we've actually seen just two more shots produced from them excluding spot-kicks, indicating the proficiency teams have been at finding ways to score from set-pieces.

Goal Statistics Reveal an Interesting Narrative

Over 300 goals scored in 110 games so far calculates at 2.74 scores each match, which if it continued for the entire campaign might be the smallest for since 2020-21, back in 2020-21 (2.69).

However, only under 200 goals scored in open-play equates to 1.78 per game and is heading to be the lowest for 16 seasons, from 16 years ago (1.76 average).

2009-10 is also the unique EPL season to experience scoring more often from set-plays excluding penalties than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per game (0.79 average).

Which Teams Are Most Responsible?

When it comes to scoring from open-play, Wolves have recorded the most significant decrease, registering a mere four in 11 matches, a reduction of 10 than at this stage the previous campaign.

Excluding Wolverhampton, the Premier League's drop in open play goals is predominantly a London phenomenon, with five of the capital's seven sides recording at least five less scores from open-play than the prior season.

To be fair, that's largely down to them netting many goals at the early stages of last season instead of their genuine struggle to find the net in open play this campaign.

Meanwhile Man City have experienced the most significant jump, with nearly all of the 23 they've scored this season originating in open play.

Dead-Ball Dominance

Comparing clubs that came up with those that were relegated that they superseded. Sunderland the Black Cats have recorded an additional three scores in open-play than Southampton managed in matchday 11 on their way to demotion last season.

In terms of scoring from dead-ball situations (not counting spot-kicks), Arsenal and the Blues have recorded the largest rise, with the two clubs replacing the five fewer scores that they've produced in open play with an equal amount from dead-ball chances.

Man United have netted two times more scores from set-plays as they did in matchday 11 last season before their coach took over, while Sunderland additionally are better at converting than the fellow red-and-whites that went down.

City appear not to have received the message about increasing scoring from set-plays, because they've scored a reduction of three than last season, like Nottingham Forest, even if that might be down to the altered approach they've attempted to adopt.

General Tendencies

Six clubs – Arsenal, Chelsea, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Spurs and the Hammers – are this term's top trend-setters by netting less scores from open-play and more from set-pieces, while City are the only side to defy the pattern to date by doing the exact opposite.

It will be interesting to see if teams persist to depend greatly on set-plays as the season goes on or if they rediscover their all-round creativity and begin scoring more goals in open-play as well.

Kristen Bailey
Kristen Bailey

Cybersecurity specialist and AI researcher with over a decade of experience in tech innovation and digital security solutions.