A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
