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At first, the former US president appeared to adopt a resolute approach concerning Ukraine. Following delivering statements of "severe ramifications" last August should Vladimir Putin carried on blocking truce talks, Trump eventually imposed substantial restrictions on the Russian primary petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action substantially hindered Putin's capability to support his aggression in the region.

But, via his recently unveiled 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, which was created by US and Russian diplomats without Ukrainian or EU participation, Trump has clearly gone back to his Russia-friendly approach.

Benefiting Aggression

Trump's initiative would effectively reward Putin for invading a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Although bold statements that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", much of the initiative actually compromise that same independence. Seen as a Moscow's wish would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his business past, Trump seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a mere border issue, implying ceding Russia a section of Ukraine's soil will please the president. But, Putin's military campaign is not only about controlling a damaged swath of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent intention to destroy it so it ceases to acts as an appealing standard for the Russian citizens of the responsible government that his deepening authoritarian rule denies them.

Land Concessions

Although maintaining in status the currently split regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would force Ukraine to abandon the entire Donetsk region. In addition to benefiting Russia with land that its forces have been unable to seize in more than a ten years of conflict, this concession would leave Ukrainian military defenses critically compromised.

The area is the location of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established military defenses that constitute a critical barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine leave these positions, providing Russian forces a clear path to the capital should he eventually choose to resume the conflict.

Military Limitations

Furthermore, in a step that would facilitate future conflict simpler for the Russian military, Trump would require the nation to diminish the numbers of its military from their existing approximately 800,000 personnel to a cap of this lower number. Significantly, the plan places no such limits on Russian forces.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's attempts to portray the nation's chosen by the people administration as extremists, Trump's proposal declares: "Every Nazi belief system and actions must be opposed and banned." Apparently to emphasize this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a truce. However, the proposal places no requirement that Putin endanger his regime by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

Certainly, the proposal makes the Russian Federation promise not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in legislation its position of non-aggression towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that Putin has breached equivalent agreements in the previous instances – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government promised to respect the nation's territorial integrity in return for giving up its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow agreed to a halt in fighting and a handback of captured areas in the region to Kyiv – for what reason should the international community have confidence in Putin on this occasion?

That is why Ukraine has been so adamant on international protection assurances. Although the proposal warns of a "strong coordinated armed reaction" should the Russian Federation restart its aggression, and states that "Ukraine will receive reliable protection assurances", the specifics vary from vague to concerning. The proposal would not just deny the nation alliance membership but also prohibit member states from deploying forces on the nation's land, thereby blocking the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively commanded by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to prevent Russia from restoring his diminished forces, restocking, and attacking again.

Global Response

An additional supplementary accord according to sources would offer the nation with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "major, deliberate, and sustained armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war jeopardizing the tranquility of the transatlantic community." This implies a defense action. However unlike a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary defense against additional hostilities – the success of the side agreement would depend on the willingness of alliance members, like the US administration, to react with force to Russia's attacks, a response they have {not