‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Supplies.

The repercussions of a war being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's kitchens.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of kitchen fuel are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian metros and localities as concerns over fuel supplies grow. Businesses appear the hardest struck: the most severe shortage is in commercial eateries.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Kitchen fuel simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.

Most food outlets run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being felt across the country. "Many restaurants have ceased operations - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are adopting solid fuels and electric cookers to keep their operations going."

Regional Impact

In Mumbai, local news say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already operating at reduced capacity as business fuel stocks dwindle. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some restaurants say their cylinder inventory have depleted with little backup. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is extremely difficult. Operations will be impacted," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are skipping midday meals and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that closures are varying as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers report a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Official Position

Yet, the authorities maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore household consumers and authorities say supplies are being prioritized to households as geopolitical strain from the Middle East conflict affect energy markets.

Roughly a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the conflict.

The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for home needs, enhancing domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for essential sectors such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been caused by false reports. The standard supply timeline for domestic LPG remains about under three days," says a senior official.

Widening Concern

Now the worry is moving beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "The panic is real," the description reads.

According to reports from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be exaggerated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil. Around 50% of its petroleum shipments - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly compensated for by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a sector expert.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The real vulnerability is LPG, analysts say.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through Hormuz.

Refineries can tweak operations to produce a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only raise domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be somewhat alleviated through diversification. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. Kitchen fuel stocks is the real variable to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of panic buying.

An industry representative states exploitative practices.

"Retailers are misusing the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold at a premium."

For now, India's energy imports may be protected by global trade flows. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.